Some sectors may plateau before pre-Covid level growth is reached


New Delhi, Aug 26 | The slowing pace of economic recovery suggests that the recovery in some sectors may plateau much before pre-pandemic levels are reached.

“We also find that the sequential pace of normalisation is moderating, suggesting that some sectors may plateau much before they reach their pre-pandemic levels,” foreign brokerage Nomura said in a report.

As per the Nomura India Normalization Index (NINI), normalisation indices across sectors continued to inch higher in July, suggesting the post-lockdown recovery progressed in early Q3. However, the recovery remains uneven with a faster rise in supply (vs demand),
rural consumption (vs urban) and industrial sector (vs services).

“Overall, we estimate aggregate demand stood at 67 per cent of its pre-pandemic level in July, lower than aggregate supply (at 82 per cent).

“Our weekly tracker of the pace of activity normalization flat-lined at 73.4 for the week ending 23 August, still above July’s levels, but underlining the slower pickup once post-lockdown euphoria eases,” it said.

The report noted that sequential pace of recovery is tapering off. Although economic indicators are showing signs of recovery, the pace has moderated over the past few months.

The sequential pace of month on month normalisation in consumption in July was lower than the pickup in June.

Similar trends are seen in investment and industrial indicators, with the external sector being the only exception – the latter registered a faster pace in July due to the delayed recovery in import growth.

“Although a slower sequential pace is not entirely surprising as the fastest pickup is bound to occur right after lockdown relaxations, the slowing pace suggests the recovery in some sectors may plateau much before pre-pandemic levels are reached,” the report said.

Additionally, with aggregate supply getting close to its pre-pandemic normal, its next phase of recovery will need to be driven by higher demand, instead of normalization and pent-up demand thus far, it said.

“Consistent with evidence in other economies such as China, we find that aggregate supply is recovering faster than aggregate demand,” Nomura said.

Demand has likely taken a larger hit from higher precautionary savings by consumers amid rising income uncertainty; the classic ‘paradox of thrift’.

By contrast, the supply side has been largely constrained by lockdown rules and the availability of factors of production (such as labour, electricity and logistical support), which are more responsive to the ending of restrictions.

In July, the aggregate demand NINI picked up to 67.2 per cent of potential from 56.1 per cent in June, while the more buoyant supply side recovered to 82 per cent of the potential in July vs 79 per cent in June.

In a report, Morgan Stanley said that economic indicators for July and August have continued to improve, indicating a gradual normalisation in activity.

“With continued easing of restrictions, we expect economic activity to gradually normalise,” the report said.

Source: IANS

Sponsors Posts

Nirman Nagar Kajarwara Jabalpur by One Realty Developers -

Nirman Nagar Kajarwara Jabalpur by One Realty Developers -

Reliability, Quality, Assurance, and Authenticity have always been pillars of One Realty Developers. Reaching new heights every year and catering to the masses ever since 2011, we bring you NIRMAN NAGAR a 9 Acres affordable housing Township in Kajarwara just 4.8 km from Sadar.

In NIRMAN NAGAR we bring you an array of affordable housing options to choose from Plots, 2 BHK singlex, and 4 BHK duplex. Three beautifully landscaped gardens with amenities like a children’s play area, water fountain, and a badminton court.

The drainage system is Hi-tech and fully underground so are the security and surveillance system in the township. This RERA-approved township has tie-up with all major banks for the finance facility. We believe that the cornerstone of any great structure is a great idea and that one of the greatest joys of life is to see your idea brought to life before your own eyes. This is the Endeavor One Realty Developers undertake, to bring your ideas from abstract concept to solid reality.

Singlex & Duplex Specification

FRAMEWORK RCC framed structure. SUPERSTRUCTURE Conventional brick masonry.

DOORS Main Door – Teak wood frame & shutter. Internal Doors – Sal wood frame and Flush door, PVC door for the toilet.

WINDOWS Anodized aluminum windows with grills.

FLOORING Vitrified tiles flooring with skirting in living/dining and all bedrooms. Anti-skid ceramic tile flooring in toilets, balconies, and utility areas. Paver blocks for car portico.

KITCHEN Granite countertop with ceramic tile dado up to 2 feet above the counter and stainless steel sink (Single bowl, single drain) Ceramic tile cladding in the wash area. Provision of the aqua guard water point.

WALL FINISHES All interior walls with a smooth finish and Acrylic emulsion paint over Birla / JK cement putty. All exterior walls with cement-based exterior paint of Apex or equivalent. Plaster of Paris / molding work in drawing and dining area.

TOILETS/ BATHS European WC’s washbasins of Hindware / Parryware or equivalent make. Provision for a shower in toilets.

POWER Concealed copper wiring of standard make. Power plugs in all necessary areas. Electrical fittings and fixtures of Anchor / Roma or equivalent make. Provision of points for the electric chimney, exhaust fans in kitchen bathrooms, air conditioners in rooms.

COMMUNICATIONS Telephone &Internet points in the living room. CABLE Provision for cable TV in the living room and all bedrooms.

For more details please click here or visit

Current Projects of One Realty Developers
Nirman Nagar Jabalpur, Kajarwara, Jabalpur

Projects Delivered by One Realty Developers
Aura City Jabalpur, Barela, Jabalpur
Nirvana City Jabalpur, Barela, Jabalpur
Gulmohar Greens Jabalpur, Barela, Jabalpur
Nirvana Exoticaa Jabalpur, Nirvana Exoticaa – Phase 1 & 2, Barela, Jabalpur

For more details please click here or visit


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here