Ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz in a dilemma

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By Ashis Ray
London, May 13 |
There was more to the high level meeting of leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in London than met the eye, informed sources indicated.

On the face of it, the economic crisis gripping Pakistan, whether or not to call early elections, and how to tackle the challenge posed by a populist Imran Khan were on the agenda during the two-day conference with former Prime Minister and leader of the PML-N Nawaz Sharif, who is exiled in the British capital.

However, observers claimed tensions among senior figures in the party was equally pertinent. It is said there is a general acceptance of Nawaz Sharif as the undisputed leader, but not his brother Shehbaz Sharif, who is now Prime Minister.

While the latter is deemed to have been relatively successful as Chief Minister of Punjab, his alleged style of decision-making without prior consultation is reportedly not ideal at the federal level. Nationally, PML-N has powerful figures in former Prime Minister Shahid Abbasi, Ahsan Iqbal, and Khawaja Asif.

The party leadership is split on early elections. One section feels it would be blamed for a deterioration in the economic situation, which is feared before a turnaround. Tough conditions attached to any bailout by the International Monetary Fund could also inflict short-term pain on the people. This group thinks accusing Imran Khan of mismanagement in a snap election would win the PML-N alliance, now in office, a majority.

Nawaz Sharif is believed to be of this view and a final decision has, it seems, been left to him.

A participant in the parleys was former Finance Minister of Pakistan, Ishaq Dar, who presented his ideas on economic options. The lack of clarity on the IMF package and any assistance Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may extend has caused the Pakistani rupee to weaken against the US dollar.

However, the co-chairman of a key coalition partner Pakistan People’s Party, Asif Zardari, is opposed to elections before reforms of election and National Accountability laws in the country.

“Whether it takes three or four months, we have to work on implementation of policies and improving the electoral process,” he told a press conference in Pakistan.

He added: “I have also talked to Nawaz Sharif on this and we agreed that we can go to polls as soon as the reforms and targets are met.”

The choice of Zardari’s son Bilawal as the Pakistan Foreign Minister has apparently been well received. The Oxford-educated 33-year-old’s humility has impressed career diplomats. He is scheduled to travel to the US next week to attend a Global Food Security meeting in New York at the personal invitation of Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Resumption of US economic aid to Islamabad – which would depend on reciprocal cooperation on Afghanistan and containment of extremism – is crucial to Pakistan’s recovery.

The Pakistani Foreign Office said: “The foreign minister (during a meeting with the American charge d’ affaires) invited US companies to come and invest in Pakistan.”

It added: “With the US, there is a shared desire for further strengthening and enhancing of mutually beneficial bilateral relations as manifested by recent and ongoing contacts.”

Imran Khan’s continuing popularity is not only a headache for the current ruling parties, but also for the top brass of the Pakistan Army, who created him and have now chosen to be “neutral” – which could mean they are actually attempting to cut him to size.

The former Pakistan cricket captain enjoys a significant following among overseas Pakistanis in Britain. At home it is primarily an urban phenomenon, with Karachi possibly topping the list in supporting him.

Worryingly for the army generals, a majority in the middle and lower ranks below them are behind Imran Khan, as are overwhelmingly serving officers and men in the air force and the navy and retired personnel. To turn this around is a Herculean task for even the omnipotent army.

On Friday, Imran Khan, calling the army “neutrals”, reminded it that his Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin had warned the economy would go into a “tailspin” if his government was ousted, which, of course, it legitimately was on the floor of Pakistan’s National Assembly.

Punitive action against Imran Khan, even if ordered by the judiciary, could be seen by the Pakistani public as vengeful and might backfire.

Thus, the PML-N is in a dilemma.

Source: IANS

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Weekly Technical Share Market Outlook

Weekly Technical Share Market Outlook

The Indian market recovered sharply on the last trading day amid the weekend after a continuous fall. Market has managed to halt above 16000 Nifty levels after continuous losing streak. Index reacted violently, grasping Indian as well as global factors throughout the week. Simultaneously, Inflation is catching up and profit margins are taking a hit.

 

Sensex advanced 1532 points or 2.90 percent while Nifty gained 484 points or 3.07 percent in a week. Simultaneously, Bank nifty has overcome bear’s dominance ending the session with 3.49 percent gain. Sectorally,Nifty Metal saw the highest gains of 7.40 percent followed by the Realty and Auto added over 4% gain. On the flip side Nifty IT tumbled 2.82 percent on weekly basis. Midcap and Small Cap measures rising nearly 2 percent as well.

In Nifty stock, EICHERMOT gained 11.31% while TECHM lost 5.98% on a weekly basis. INDIA VIX closes at 23.10 suggests volatility driven market is going to remain intact. Coming to the OI Data, on the call side highest OI witnessed at 17000 Nifty followed by 16800 Nifty strike price while on the put side, the highest OI was at 16000 Nifty followed by 15800 Nifty strike price. Technically, Nifty has formed a Tweezer Bottom type pattern in the weekly chart suggesting a short term buying rally may drive the market until monthly expiry. On the daily chart, price has rebounded from the lower Bollinger band as well.

Momentum indicators MACD & Stochastic were trading with a positive crossover & reversed from oversold zone. However, Index is still struggling to get the support of 50 Simple Moving Average in daily chart. Short term investors and traders are advised to work with option strategies to neutralize the volatility. Overall, Nifty is having support at 15700 mark while on the upside 16700 followed by 16500 may act as an immediate resistance. While Bank nifty has support around 32500 while resistance is placed at 36000 on weekly chart.

Sumeet Bagadia
Executive Director
Choice Broking

Source: Choice India

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