Pandemicproof: India’s Q1FY22 GDP growth seen ranging above 14% in Q1FY22 (IANS Poll)

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By Rohit Vaid
New Delhi/Mumbai, Aug 27 |
Pent-up demand along with low base is expected to accelerate India’s economic growth rate in Q1FY22 on a year-on-year basis.

Accordingly, the period from April-June 2021 had less stringenet lockdown norms than the same period of 2020.

These partial lockdowns were mainly regional in nature.

Besides, a steady growth in exports as well as robust performance of agricultural sector is expected to give a push to GDP growth.

A poll of economists and industry experts conducted by IANS showed that majority of them expect a GDP growth rate during Q1FY22 to range between 24-14 per cent.

“We estimate GDP growth at a deceptively high 20 per cent in Q1FY22 boosted by abnormally low base of last year’s nationwide lockdown,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA.

“Healthy exports, government capital spending and resilient farm demand have supported economic activity amidst the staggered state-wise restrictions.”

According to Emkay Global’s Lead Economist Madhavi Arora: “The GDP growth is likely to be better than initially expected helped by base effect and healthy corporate operating profits in June quarter, allying fears of sharper sequential losses.”

“GDP growth could range between 19-22 per cent. Strong net taxes will imply GDP growth will overshoot GVA growth in Q1FY22.”

Last year, a near complete nationwide lockdown led to a massive 24.4 per cent YoY contraction in Q1FY21 GDP.

“The growth print is likely to be supported by the relative resilience of the industrial sector in this phase of the pandemic, steady uptick in exports and improved government capital expenditure levels apart from the base factor,” said Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuite Ratings & Research.

“We have projected a GVA YoY growth of 20 per cent and a GDP growth of 22-23 per cent for Q1FY22.”

However, the absolute levels of output will still be lower compared to the pre-Covid levels.

“India Ratings expects 1QFY21 GDP growth to come in at 15.3 per cent. But for the Covid 2.0, it would have been higher. However much of the double digit growth is going to be on account of low base of last year,” said India Ratings & Research Principal Economist Sunil Kumar Sinha.

“To put the things into perspective it would still be 12.9 per cent lower than the GDP of 1QFY20.”

Even on sequential basis, GVA and GDP vis-a-vis Q4FY21 is expected to be higher. India’s GDP had grown by 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of last fiscal.

“We expect GDP growth for Q1FY22 at 14 per cent (year-on-year), largely due to a low base in Q1FY21. The subsequent quarters will see an improvement if there is no resurgence of the virus in the form of a third wave,” said Brickwork Ratings’ Chief Economic Adviser M.Govinda Rao.

“Although many states have started easing the lockdown restrictions recently, economic activities have not resumed completely to their pre-Covid levels.”

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)

Source: IANS

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Does MBA really help in getting a better job offer ?

Does MBA really help in getting a better job offer ?

Most students pursuing an MBA come with the sole objective of having a decent job offer or a promotion in the existing job soon after completion of the MBA. And most of them take loans to pursue this career dream. According to a recent survey by education portal Campusutra.com  74% MBA 2022-24 aspirants said they would opt for education loans.

There are exceptional cases like those seeking master’s degree or may have a family business to take care of or an entrepreneurial venture in mind. But the exception cases are barely 1%. For the rest 99%, a management degree is a ticket to a dream job through campus placements or leap towards career enhancements. Stakes are high as many of them quit their jobs which essentially means loss of 2 years of income, apprehension and uncertainty of the job market. On top of that, the pressure to pay back the education loans. Hence the returns have to be high. There is more than just the management degree. Colleges need to ensure that they offer quality management education which enables them to be prepared for not just the demands of recruiters and for a decent job but also to sustain and achieve, all along their career path.

  • So, what exactly are the B Schools doing to prepare their students for the job market and make them industry ready ?
  •  Are B schools ready to deliver and prepare the future business leaders to cope up with the disrupted market ?  

These are the two key questions every MBA aspirant needs to ask, check and validate before filling the MBA application forms of management institutes. And worth mentioning that these application forms do not come cheap. An MBA aspirant who may have shortlisted 5 B Schools to apply for, may end up spending Rs 10,000.00 to Rs 15,000.00 just buying MBA / PGDM application forms.

While internship and placements data of some management institutes clearly indicates that recruiters today have specific demands. The skill sets looked for are job centric and industry oriented. MBA schools which have adopted new models of delivery and technology, redesigned their courses, built an effective evaluation process and prepared the students to cope with the dynamic business scenario, have done great with campus placements despite the economic slow down.

However, the skill set being looked for by a consulting company like Deloitte or KPMG may be quite different from FMCG or a manufacturing sector. Institutes need to acknowledge this fact and act accordingly.

  • Management institutes should ensure that students are intellectually engaged, self motivated and adapt to changes fast. In one word ‘VUCA ready’.
  • B Schools should encourage students to participate in national and international competitive events, simulations of business scenarios.
  • Institutes should have the right mix of faculty members with industry exposure and pure academics.

The placement records of 2021 across top management institutes indicated the fact that recruitment is happening, skilled talent is in demand and certain management institutions continued to attract recruiters even in the middle of an ongoing crisis.

It is time, all management institutes rise to the occasion, understand market realities and identify areas of improvement at both ends – students and faculty.

After all, the stakes are high at both ends. B Schools taking corrective measures will stay while those which are lagging will end up shutting down.

Author Name : Nirmalya Pal

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