New Delhi, May 13 | The much-awaited Southwest Monsoon is likely to knock on Kerala’s door on May 27, against the normal onset date of June 1, the IMD announced on Friday.
The monsoon’s arrival is eagerly awaited as it has a deep impact on India’s agriculture and economy and hence termed as the real Finance Minister of India.
“This year, the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be earlier than normal date of onset. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 27 with a model error of plus or minus four days,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
In the Indian monsoon region, initial monsoon rains are experienced over south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal. As per the normal dates of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around May 22.
“In association with enhanced cross equatorial winds, conditions are becoming favourable for advance of Southwest Monsoon into South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, around May 15,” the IMD said.
Past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country, the IMD pointed out.
The benchmark Indices Nifty started on the positive side after continuous sell off in last week and has managed to settle at 15842.30 with 60 point gain or 0.38 percent. However Nifty has failed to regain 16000 levels prior to LIC listing.
While Bank nifty has managed to settle at 33597.60 levels after gaining 1.44 percent. On the sectoral front, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Realty and Auto have contributed 2-3 percent gain on closing basis. On the flip side Nifty IT and FMCG ended with losses of 0.75 percent and 0.35 respectively. In Nifty, EICHERMOT, APOLLOHOSP and UPL were the top gainers while ULTRACEMCO, SHREECEM and ASIANPAINT were the prime laggards.
Technically, after forming the bearish candle on the weekly chart, the index has formed a Doji candlestick on the daily chart which shows indecisiveness among the trades. Moreover, the index has also faced a resistance from falling trend lines and showed profit booking from higher levels. However, Fibonacci retrenchment also has support around 15650 levels.
Traders may find buying opportunities for short term as if 15650 levels is protected. In the hourly chart, with support of the middle Bollinger band short term upside movement is expected. Stock specific action would drive the market in coming days too.
On the derivatives front, the highest call OI is at 16000 strike price followed by 16200 strike prices while on the put side, highest OI is at 15500 strike price. INDIA VIX closed at 24.53 with gain of 4.43 percent intraday indicating volatility is going to remain till weekly expiry . On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 32600 levels while resistance is placed at 34500 levels.
Source: Choice India