India’s GDP: Quickest to fall, fastest to recover

13

By Rohit Vaid
New Delhi, Dec 25 |
The Covid-19 induced turmoil showed weakness as well as resilience of Indias economy in 2020, as the country’s GDP recorded abysmal fall and breathtaking recovery.

The economy, which faced a severe slowdown prior to the pandemic, was decimated due to the lockdown imposed to curb the pandemic’s spread. Accordingly, the country’s GDP contracted by more than 23 per cent in Q1FY21.

Nonetheless, slow tapering of mobility and lockdown restrictions along with pent up demand narrowed this contraction to under 10 per cent in Q2FY21.

Consequently, the country entered into a technical recession.

Nevertheless, festive season, pent up demand and rise in discretionary spending coupled with massive liquidity and government stimulus triggered one the fastest recovery pattern seen anywhere in the world.

Some economy watchers described the phenomenon as a ‘V’ shaped recovery, whereas, others pointed it out as ‘U’ formation for the restoration of economic normalcy.

All in all, sector after sector reported sequential growth with many crossing the year on year sales and production levels.

Besides, various factors such as a low base, restocking and higher discretionary spends were cited for the heightened economic activity which was led by agriculture, electricity and the manufacturing sectors.

Even though cheaper interest rates helped in spurring consumption, other vitals such as lower oil prices, lesser imports and an accelerated pick up of agricultural and pharma exports added positivity to the economic scene.

After a healthy monsoon, the country’s festive season coupled with ‘unlock’ measures opened the floodgates for retail, wholesale and restocking, thereby, moving the wheels of economic revival.

Furthermore, stock markets boomed, as macro-economic data and better-than-expected quarterly results attracted FIIs with prospects of a return, something that has been missing in other asset classes throughout the year.

“A tentative recovery in volumes is underway, which is being counteracted by rising raw material prices and to a smaller extent employee costs. We expect the recovery to continue, albeit with a mild contraction in Q3 followed by a muted growth in Q4,” said Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist, ICRA.

On a sector specific basis, while agriculture and allied industries pushed the economy forward, manufacturing too came out of its doldrums even though it has dipped slightly ever since.

However, the service sector’s contribution was lacking in giving a real push to the GDP.

Now with hopes of a mass immunisation programme armed with a high efficacy backed vaccine, front and back end services are expected to bounce back.

“The next leg of sequential recovery may emerge from services which has been a laggard so far, while government spending may also improve at the margin,” Emkay Global’s Lead Economist Madhavi Arora said.

“We see FY21 growth at (-)7.1 per cent with a mild downward bias. We reckon while 2HFY21 will see further pick up, sustaining sequential growth momentum beyond that will require easing domestic structural overhang, continued innovative policy support and better global backdrop,” she added.

Apart from the government spending or the private final consumption, it was savings backed discretionary spends of common households that came in as a saviour for the economy.

“We believe that the accumulated savings of particularly the Indian salaried class over the last 7-8 months due to limited expenses on travel and entertainment will get partly diverted to the purchase of vehicles and consumer durables,” Acuite Ratings & Research Chief Analytical Officer Suman Chowdhury said.

“This is already reflected in the uptick in the demand of these products. The pent up demand and the availability of higher savings, therefore is expected to drive consumption demand over the next 1-2 quarters,” Chowdhury added.

Other than stimulus, the Centre’s structural reforms, focus on the manufacturing sector and inflow of FDI into the country are likely to hasten the pace of economic recovery.

According to Brickwork Ratings’ Chief Economic Adviser M. Govinda Rao: “The economy will continue to recover as restrictions are relaxed and capacity utilisation improves. It is important to undertake structural reforms to accelerate the pace of investment in order to reclaim a high growth trajectory.”

In addition, experts cited India Inc’s massive shift to e-com, acceptance of higher safety standards and inculcation of efficiency boosting measures as other notable trends during this historic period.

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)

Source: IANS

Sponsors Posts

Meet Gurmeet singh Shunty A New Superhero With Turban

Meet Gurmeet singh Shunty A New Superhero With Turban

In the last year, the whole world was struck by a large pandemic. The year 2020 came with a pandemic called coronavirus which affected the whole world badly. Coronavirus in India resulted in great downfalls in health, economy, unemployment, and so on. Lakhs of People Lost their lives, jobs, and their loved ones. The whole year was very disturbing for each section of society. Coronavirus in India resulted in great downfalls of health, economy, unemployment, and so on. The whole year passed with a large Tension and fear for all the peoples. In the hard times of coronavirus spread, a lot of peoples came out and helped the person in need and It is one of the very few positive effects of Covid-19.

During the blast of the Covid-19 pandemic in the world our volunteers have demonstrated an exceptional display of solidarity across the world and our society. However, this is also the year which witnessed the world coming together to fight coronavirus. The year with its share of trials and tribulations threw up some exemplary work being done by organisations and individuals in this difficult time as the pandemic spread, a new breed of warriors with an indomitable spirit stood up bravely against it to take on the challenge head on.

In the hard times of lockdown, a lot of peoples came out and helped the person in need and It helped the society to live again with a hope of being helped in bad time. During the Large spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in the world our leaders of the society have demonstrated an exceptional display of solidarity across the world and in our society too. They did a Great work in every aspect needed at that time, from Responding to calls for help from their local communities to help them by going on roads, they are everyday heroes who came as a preserver for them.

They do wear masks and face shields to protect themselves and spread awareness in the society to follow each rule and regulation. We can say that there are many things which has spread faster than the coronavirus during the pandemic, it has been the noble works, fearless steps, selfless service and recognition of Gurmeet Ji and his supporters who continued to work day and night to save other’s lives. He also set up camps and volunteer help alongside highways and by roadsides, just to provide relief and support the migrant workers going back to their places all over India.

Among the Great hidden heroes who worked day and night to fight during lockdown, one such person is Gurmeet Singh shunty ji, who is the ex general secretary of delhi sikh gurudwara committee.Being at such great post he always learned to do sewa and that teaching has been always with him which dedicated him towards the society to work for the people of his own nation and humanity. Gurmeet Ji worked 24×7 , without caring of himself. He is the person who have been stepping in to help during the pandemic and they all have been a portrait of selflessness and optimism to this society.

Gurmeet Ji believe that our selfless acts or Sewa in any form must be done to save humanity, Sewa require a true heart and helping nature which will bring both helper and victim happy. During the tough times of coronavirus, Gurmeet Ji and his volunteers came out of their comfort zones to help lakhs of migrants workers who wanted to go back to their hometown during the COVID-19 lockdown. So in that  time  when the world undergoes such vast pandemics which affects all the person Whether it’s a small or large donation of money, resource or humanity, each things matter.

During the tough times of coronavirus, when everyone was thinking of themselves First, Gurmeet Ji and his volunteers came out of their comfort zones to help lakhs of migrants workers who wanted to go back to their hometown during the COVID-19 lockdown.Despite of being older in age,He did not let himself to be inside house and watch news of the suffering surroundings but he helped as many people as he could during the crisis by arranging food, buses, trains and most importantly by giving a warmth of love and care.He created a large team just to help the peoples in problem and inspired many others to do so. We can say that there are many things which has spread faster than the coronavirus during the pandemic, it has been the noble works, fearless steps, selfless service and recognition of Gurmeet Ji and his supporters who continued to work day and night to save other’s lives by risking his own and his family’s health. They didn’t even meet their family members and specially children for months,for their Safety and some even spend nights in their vehicles and outside home to assure that the virus doesn’t spread further to their loved ones and family members. Government took various steps to save our nation from the bad impacts of corona spread and one of them was lockdown. Lockdown was done to stop the spread the corona in nation but it resulted in great losses.when lots of People were on Roads, lots have nothing to eat and some were not having anyone for their care, without any money and food thousands of People covered thousands of kms on their feets, with their families and whatever they had earned in their lifetime, there comes some unknown super heroes of our society who helped them selflessly.

Their faces get rashed by the mask marks, they continuously took medicines to save themselves and others too. They maintain distance from their own members in order to help other persons to reach their destinations. In the bad times we get to know about many such People and These are the people who are helping in restoring humanity’s faith by coming up with novel ideas and their great works which inspires whole society to come ahead. That was the time when a number of labourers, their children and other family members were forced to return back to their places but Gurmeet Ji risked his life to save theirs.He started his service with providing cooked food as langar sewa and later switched to dry rations too, with the objective that people in need should not go to sleep on an empty stomach and they must not loose their hearts and continue their journey with less problems. It’s very hard to find such person in this crucial time when everyone put themselves first but Gurmeet Ji believe in his teachings and said “our panth has taught us the lesson of jan sewa, and we will continue this legacy till our last breathe.”

All the people who helped any of the person in need will be in their memory for forever as they made them believe on brotherhood and humanity in such a Crisis. It is beleived that in when some person get trapped in trouble even your shadow leave your side but the persons like Gurmeet Ji taught each and every person of society that we Must help each other to maintain love and care in society which will make then believe in the existence of god. If God has given you the power and resources to help others you must move forward as your one step can change anybody’s life.Gurmeet ji said that “our great sangat give us the teachings of sharing whatever less or more you have and These teachings which I started learning since my childhood inspired me to help my brothers and sisters of this society. ” He further added that he feel so happy and blessed that he could be the reason of anyone’s little smile. He requested everyone that even Your small step can save someone’s life and make them beleive into humanity and brotherhood.He started his service with providing cooked food as langar sewa and later

 

switched to dry rations too, with the objective that people in need should not go to sleep on an empty stomach and they must not loose their hearts and continue their journey with less problems.

He also set up camps and volunteer help alongside highways and by roadsides, just to provide relief and support the migrant workers going back to their places in UP, Bihar and even farther. It was clearly seen during the pandemic when thousands of people were going towards their villages with their small children and had nothing to feed them, at that time Gurmeet Ji provided them food ,water and other necessary items which brought  beautiful smiles and tears of happiness in their eyes as they never expected that in this crucial time there could be someone who will act as a survival medium for them.

At that time many warriors came in the front line to help the society. Despite being senior in age Gurmeet singh Shunty ji, was the Person who came out of the house when everyone was locked. He was standing in the crowd to help them reach their houses and made  very hard decisions at the right time.

We need to Recognise these Heroes so that they could work more and more for the welfare of this society. We need to Recognise these unsung Heroes so that they could work more and more for this society as “this society is all about give and take.”  They have given millions of smiles and its our time.They must be appreciated for their noble works to boost such works of brotherhood. They have given millions of smiles and its our time to pay them back.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here