Bank gross NPAs to rise to 8-9%, stressed assets to touch 10-11%: Report

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Mumbai, Oct. Oct 19 | Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of banks will rise to 8-9 per cent this fiscal, well below the peak of 11.2 per cent seen at the end of fiscal, ratings agency Crisil said in a report.

The Covid-19 relief measures such as the restructuring dispensation, and the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) will help limit the rise, the report added.

With 2 per cent of bank credit expected under restructuring by the end of this fiscal, stressed assets-comprising gross NPAs and loan book under restructuring-should touch 10-11 per cent.

Krishnan Sitaraman, Senior Director and Deputy Chief Ratings Officer, CRISIL Ratings, said: “The retail and MSME segments, which together form 40 per cent of bank credit, are expected to see higher accretion of NPAs and stressed assets this time around. Stressed assets in these segments are seen rising to 4-5 per cent and 17-18 per cent, respectively, by this fiscal end. The numbers would have trended even higher but for write-offs, primarily in the unsecured segment.”

The retail segment, which had a relatively stable run over the past decade, has been singed by the pandemic, with salaried and self-employed borrowers alike facing significant income challenges and higher medical expenses, especially in the second wave.

Thus, in a first-of-its-kind move, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced loan restructuring for retail borrowers to help them tide over the situation. This followed a six-month moratorium permitted by lenders last fiscal.

Despite the measures, CRISIL Ratings believes stressed assets in the retail segment will rise to 4-5 per cent by the end of this fiscal from 3 per cent last fiscal. While home loans, the largest segment, will be the least impacted, unsecured loans are expected to bear the brunt of the pandemic.

The MSME segment, despite benefiting from ECLGS and the recent limit enhancement and tenure extension, is likely to see asset quality deteriorate and will require restructuring to manage cash-flow challenges. In fact, restructuring is expected to be the highest for this segment, at 4-5 per cent of the loan book, leading to a jump in stressed assets to 17-18 per cent by this fiscal end from 14 per cent last fiscal, Crisil said.

The corporate segment, though, is expected to be far more resilient. A large part of the stress in the corporate portfolio had already been recognised during the asset quality review initiated five years ago. That, coupled with the secular deleveraging trend, has strengthened the balance sheets of corporates, and enabled them to tide over the pandemic relatively unscathed compared with retail and MSME borrowers. This is evident from restructuring of only 1 per cent in the segment. Consequently, corporate stressed assets are expected to remain range-bound at 9-10 per cent this fiscal.

The rural segment, which was hit harder during the second wave of the pandemic, has also seen a strong recovery. Therefore, stressed assets in the agriculture segment are expected to remain relatively stable.

Subha Sri Narayanan, Director, CRISIL Ratings, said: “While the performance of the restructured portfolio will definitely need close monitoring, the slippages from the restructured book are expected to be lower this time. Restructuring under various schemes in the past focussed on larger exposures and primarily involved extension of maturity without any material haircuts, resulting in high subsequent slippages. This time, the entry barriers for restructuring are more stringent. Also, recent trends indicate that a reasonable proportion of borrowers, primarily on the retail side, have started making additional payments as their cash flows improve, despite having availed of restructuring. MSMEs, however, may take longer to stabilise and we remain watchful.”

The estimates of CRISIL Ratings are predicated on a base-case scenario of 9.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal and continued improvement in corporate credit quality.

A virulent third wave and significant deceleration in demand growth could pose significant downside risks to these estimates. On the other hand, operationalisation of the National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd by the end of this fiscal and the expected first-round sale of Rs 90,000 crore NPAs could lead to lower reported gross NPAs.

Source: IANS

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Does MBA really help in getting a better job offer ?

Does MBA really help in getting a better job offer ?

Most students pursuing an MBA come with the sole objective of having a decent job offer or a promotion in the existing job soon after completion of the MBA. And most of them take loans to pursue this career dream. According to a recent survey by education portal Campusutra.com  74% MBA 2022-24 aspirants said they would opt for education loans.

There are exceptional cases like those seeking master’s degree or may have a family business to take care of or an entrepreneurial venture in mind. But the exception cases are barely 1%. For the rest 99%, a management degree is a ticket to a dream job through campus placements or leap towards career enhancements. Stakes are high as many of them quit their jobs which essentially means loss of 2 years of income, apprehension and uncertainty of the job market. On top of that, the pressure to pay back the education loans. Hence the returns have to be high. There is more than just the management degree. Colleges need to ensure that they offer quality management education which enables them to be prepared for not just the demands of recruiters and for a decent job but also to sustain and achieve, all along their career path.

  • So, what exactly are the B Schools doing to prepare their students for the job market and make them industry ready ?
  •  Are B schools ready to deliver and prepare the future business leaders to cope up with the disrupted market ?  

These are the two key questions every MBA aspirant needs to ask, check and validate before filling the MBA application forms of management institutes. And worth mentioning that these application forms do not come cheap. An MBA aspirant who may have shortlisted 5 B Schools to apply for, may end up spending Rs 10,000.00 to Rs 15,000.00 just buying MBA / PGDM application forms.

While internship and placements data of some management institutes clearly indicates that recruiters today have specific demands. The skill sets looked for are job centric and industry oriented. MBA schools which have adopted new models of delivery and technology, redesigned their courses, built an effective evaluation process and prepared the students to cope with the dynamic business scenario, have done great with campus placements despite the economic slow down.

However, the skill set being looked for by a consulting company like Deloitte or KPMG may be quite different from FMCG or a manufacturing sector. Institutes need to acknowledge this fact and act accordingly.

  • Management institutes should ensure that students are intellectually engaged, self motivated and adapt to changes fast. In one word ‘VUCA ready’.
  • B Schools should encourage students to participate in national and international competitive events, simulations of business scenarios.
  • Institutes should have the right mix of faculty members with industry exposure and pure academics.

The placement records of 2021 across top management institutes indicated the fact that recruitment is happening, skilled talent is in demand and certain management institutions continued to attract recruiters even in the middle of an ongoing crisis.

It is time, all management institutes rise to the occasion, understand market realities and identify areas of improvement at both ends – students and faculty.

After all, the stakes are high at both ends. B Schools taking corrective measures will stay while those which are lagging will end up shutting down.

Author Name : Nirmalya Pal

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